Bitcoin (BTC) consolida um pouco abaixo de $60.000

  • Bitcoin está negociando dentro da área de suporte de 57.800 dólares.
  • Os indicadores de longo prazo estão mostrando alguma fraqueza.
  • O BTC está seguindo uma linha de resistência descendente de curto prazo.

Bitcoin (BTC) ainda está negociando acima da área de suporte de US$ 57.800, mas não conseguiu chegar a um fechamento diário acima dela.

Embora a direção da tendência do Bitcoin não seja totalmente clara, é provável que seja alta. Isto seria confirmado por uma quebra acima da atual linha de resistência descendente de curto prazo.

Fechamento semanal de longo prazo

Na semana passada, o Bitcoin diminuiu ligeiramente, criando um pequeno castiçal Doji. Isto é visto como um sinal de indecisão, especialmente porque vem depois de uma semana em que a BTC atingiu um novo preço alto de todos os tempos.

De certa forma, o mercado está se esfriando antes de outro movimento significativo. O MACD ainda está aumentando e ainda tem que criar uma barra de impulso ainda mais baixa. Da mesma forma, o oscilador estocástico ainda está se movendo para cima, apesar de não ter força considerável.

Entretanto, há dois casos de divergências de baixa visíveis no RSI. Estas são vistas como um sinal de fraqueza, especialmente porque estão presentes no período de tempo semanal. Portanto, é possível que uma reversão ou pelo menos uma correção significativa ocorra em breve.

Comércio de Bitcoin dentro do suporte

O gráfico diário mostra que a Bitcoin está sendo negociada logo acima da área de suporte de 57.800 dólares. Enquanto o longo pavio inferior é um sinal de pressão de compra, a falha em fechar acima desta área é considerada um sinal de fraqueza.

Os indicadores técnicos estão em alta, apesar de não terem convicção. Embora o MACD seja positivo, ele perdeu toda a sua força. O RSI está com tendência acima de 50, mas semelhante ao MACD, ele está se movendo em uma trajetória neutra. Entretanto, o oscilador estocástico está em alta.

Entretanto, é necessário um fechamento diário acima deste nível de suporte para que a tendência seja considerada de alta. O gráfico de duas horas está mais em alta. Bitcoin retornou para validar a área de 57.000 dólares como suporte antes de saltar.

Após algum desvio abaixo dele, a BTC recuperou a área mais uma vez. Enquanto o RSI é neutro, o MACD apóia a continuação do movimento ascendente. Uma quebra da linha de resistência descendente atual provavelmente confirmaria que a tendência é de alta.

Conclusão

A tendência a longo prazo do BTC é indecisa devido à falta de convicção dos indicadores técnicos. No entanto, a tendência de curto prazo parece estar em alta. Isto seria confirmado por uma quebra acima da atual linha de resistência descendente de curto prazo.

 

Pro-DOGE tweet remains without consequences for the price

Pro-DOGE tweet inconsequential for price: ‚Elon Musk‘ effect already fizzled out?

Elon without panache: the Tesla boss agreed with DOGE fans on Twitter yesterday that Dogecoin should be listed on Coinbase. However, the price of the coin only moved slightly.

Since the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) mentioned that it may want to have a word with Elon Musk regarding a possible solicitation, the Tesla CEO has chosen his public words carefully. The exuberance he and many other high-profile figures displayed for Crypto Genius review earlier this year has faded. However, the CEO is still attached to Dogecoin with a twinkle in his eye. And perhaps a sense of normality has returned.

Well-known Dogecoin twitterer @itsALLrisky asked Musk about the idea of DOGE becoming Coinbase too. Musk recently tapped Coinbase to facilitate the Tesla purchase of 1.5 billion BTC. Musk’s answer? Yes!

Not the moon for DOGE

In the fifteen hours since the exchange, the DOGE price has risen by about 5%. Bitcoin, which hit new all-time highs and broke through the psychologically important $60,000 mark, is up over 6.6% at press time.

Its market capitalisation is up 4.9% at the same time. So the Musk exchange has had little effect. In early February, a report by Blockchain Research Labs showed that Musk’s tweets could lead to abnormal gains for both Bitcoin and Dogecoin.

In particular, Musk’s famous „One word: DOGE“ tweet increased the coin by 8.17% in five minutes and 17.31% in one hour.
Also not 100%

Even during the euphoria, Musk’s tweets don’t always pump. His Christmas tweet, for example, came after the market had moved.

His tweets on 15 February, when he claimed he was concerned about concentration in the DOGE market, had a temporary and negative impact on the price, but it recovered to previous levels.

Musk, Tesla and Bitcoin

In February, Musk, or rather his company Tesla, moved the market in a more substantial way. Tesla bought $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin for its commercial reserves.

The purchase, with the help of Coinbase, took Bitcoin over the $42,000 mark in a short time with a 12% gain. Tesla also announced that it would begin accepting Bitcoin for the purchase of its automobiles.

O banco mais antigo da América, o BNY Mellon, custodiará Bitcoin

O executivo-chefe da divisão de serviços de ativos do banco diz que os ativos digitais estão se tornando „parte do mainstream“.

O Bank of New York Mellon, o banco mais antigo da América, anunciou planos de manter, transferir e emitir Bitcoin ( BTC ) e outras criptomoedas como gestor de ativos em nome de seus clientes.

O ímpeto para a decisão supostamente veio de investidores institucionais – os chefes da clientela do BNY Mellon – em meio à alta temporada de 2021 para a classe de ativos

Como observa o Wall Street Journal , BNY Mellon dificilmente é o primeiro nome familiar nas finanças tradicionais a abraçar ativos digitais, empresas como a Fidelity Investments há muito tempo estão no jogo. No entanto, é o primeiro banco de custódia nacional a se comprometer com a introdução da custódia de criptomoedas para sua clientela no curto prazo, ou seja, „ainda este ano“.

Roman Regelman, executivo-chefe dos negócios digitais e de serviços de ativos do banco, é citado pelo WSJ como tendo dito que “os ativos digitais estão se tornando parte do mainstream”

De acordo com o relatório, o BNY Mellon planeja gerenciar criptomoedas usando uma plataforma, agora em versão protótipo, que também será usada para lidar com participações tradicionais como títulos do Tesouro e ações.

O BNY Mellon também não impôs limites aos tipos de criptomoedas que estão prontos para custódia. Uma equipe dedicada de executivos do banco, liderada por Mike Demissie, foi supostamente encarregada de supervisionar a integração da custódia e gerenciamento de criptomoedas em todos os negócios do banco.

Embora o BNY Mellon prossiga com seus planos, Regelman, no entanto, antecipa que a incorporação total de ativos digitais na infraestrutura bancária tradicional levará mais três a cinco anos.

Banks and Blockchain: Opportunity or Death Blow?

For the vast majority of banks, it is 5 to 12. This is more true of European financial institutions than any other. In addition to a dwindling interest margin, low equity ratio and high macroeconomic risks, it is the outdated IT infrastructures and a lack of innovative strength that are causing concern about long-term viability. What measures are necessary to increase the probability of survival and what role blockchain technology plays in this.

In order to prevent the European economy from falling apart and sovereign defaults, the European Central Bank is forced to keep interest rates down – or at least to guarantee a negative real interest rate. As a result, the ECB is not only provoking an investment crisis, since there are hardly any government bonds with positive interest rates, but it is also depressing the interest margin of credit institutions. Savings banks and Volksbanks in particular, which often generate more than three quarters of their income by granting loans, are increasingly deprived of their business basis.

But even private banks such as Commerzbank or Deutsche Bank find it difficult to compensate for a falling interest margin through other branches of business such as the securities business. Especially since margins are coming under increasing pressure here too. Be it through increasingly low-margin financial products such as ETFs, increasing competition from the FinTech sector or a bond business that pays less and less interest. Large-scale job cuts are the result.

If there is then macroeconomic turbulence that causes high loan defaults, the already low equity ratio of many institutions quickly reaches its limits. But the situation is not only serious from a macroeconomic point of view.

Technical change: More empty phrases than understanding

It seems that many banks are still not aware that they are facing the greatest structural change of all time. What the internet did to the music industry or the publishing industry is now threatening the financial sector. Instead of the pure information and communication level as was previously the case in the Internet economy, it is now about new infrastructures for our money and our assets.

Specifically, the three most important core functions of a bank are affected: payment transactions, credit and custody. In addition, there are other functions such as the securities business, whose infrastructures will also be fundamentally changed in this decade.

E-Euro and Facebook’s Diem need new infrastructures

Specifically, with the switch to digital central bank money, the infrastructure will also be adapted to the new medium token. Both a digital euro in the sense of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) and in private form in the form of a stablecoin must then be embedded in new and programmable infrastructures . Every bank has to cope with blockchain-like infrastructures – even if they have little to do with an open blockchain à la Bitcoin. Be it for payment transactions or lending and securities business.

Ultimately, this change also entails a departure from the previous document requirement. Fewer and fewer securities will be processed via the old infrastructure in the next few years.

Are our authorities more innovative than our banks?

Only in December did the federal government take the first step with its law on electronic securities. In the first quarter of 2021, fully digital bonds should be exchanged before the law via tokens and blockchain registers. In the long term, this means that the securities account of the future will also need a wallet function in order to be able to store digital securities (security tokens). Equivalent changes through token-related dematerialization and automation, in which smart contracts replace manual processes, are only a matter of time. A small study by the FinTechs Finoa and Cashlink had already shown how great the savings potential is .

With the increasing regulatory framework, the way will be cleared for a token and blockchain-based financial economy. At the moment it does not look as if the current market shares will remain with the previously dominant banks. There are individual payment traffic pilots with stablecoins and at Commerzbank part of the securities processing takes place via a distributed ledger infrastructure. But that is not enough to keep up with the innovation dynamics from the FinTechs and blockchain sector.

New business models for banks, no ifs or buts

A consequence of this technological transformation process are also new business models. Be it the staking of cryptocurrencies or the digital securities issuance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Every universal bank that is serious about digital innovation – that means more than cool innovation hubs in Berlin – should already be able to present blockchain projects for each of the above-mentioned core areas of a bank, at least in cooperation with a FinTech.

Just as a Deutsche Telekom is already experimenting with staking , a Deutsche Bank must also ask itself how staking can complement the investment business and how the corporate customer business can open up new sources of income through the tokenization of GmbH shares. Even if staking and tokenization are still practically irrelevant economically in 2021, everything indicates that this will change in this decade. The same applies to so-called crypto lending, i.e. decentralized loans, the volume of which is also still irrelevant, but this could also change in the next few years.

Everyone should consider the development of Bitcoin, which a few years ago was also economically irrelevant and infrastructurally undeveloped. Today, however, it has fought for a place in the traditional financial market. The newer crypto phenomena like staking or crypto lending are where Bitcoin was a few years ago, in 2013 or 2014.

Central meets decentralized

In addition to the classic CeFi offers, i.e. financial services that are provided centrally by an intermediary, the DeFi area will also continue to develop. These decentralized financial services will not replace the centrally organized banking business anytime soon, but they will complement them. Specifically, it is to be expected that market shares will be transferred to decentralized financial protocols.

If there were a certain willingness to disrupt, banks could also develop their own decentralized protocols to help shape standards and participate in the new value-added infrastructure. Even at the risk of attacking your own value chains, this proactive addition to the existing business would massively increase the future probability of survival. There is a merger between traditional banking and the crypto economy. The earlier you understand this as a bank, the sooner you should be able to maintain market shares and save jobs.

Bitcoiners använder gruvanläggningar som uppvärmning

Crypto winter: Bitcoiners använder gruvanläggningar som uppvärmning vid låga temperaturer

Bitcoinare använder överskottsvärme från sina gruvanläggningar för uppvärmning.

Bitcoinare som har brytt kryptovaluta hemma i vinter har använt sina enheter som uppvärmning i frysa temperaturer.

Enligt Wall Street Journal rapporterar kryptogruvar i Frankrike och USA att deras uppvärmningsräkningar totalt sett har minskat. Temperaturen i deras hus är ofta långt över deras önskemål.

Thomas Smith, en fotograf från Kalifornien, har använt gruvutrustning för att värma sitt hem i minst 2019. Han har också utforskat några nya användningsområden, som att använda gruvutrustningen för att Bitcoin Revolution värma upp sina två kycklingar i ett utomhuskropp och att odla tomater i sitt växthus när temperaturerna gradvis sjönk på natten.

Redan 2018 rapporterades att grundaren av det tjeckiska kryptovalutautbytet NakamotoX odlade „kryptomatter“ i ett växthus på fem hektar genom att använda överskottsvärmen från kryptogruva.

„Mitt växthus är 24 kubikfot, så all värme från kryptovalutagruvdatoren ökar temperaturen med cirka 40 grader,“ sa Smith till WSJ. „Även på vintern, när det är 45 grader på natten, har mina tomater fortfarande sina 85 grader. På varmare nätter kan detta rosta dem.“

Han lade till:

„Jag har experimenterat med att värma mitt hem i liten skala med spillvärme från kryptovalutautvinning, med bra resultat.“

Innan pandemin, när många människor i USA fick bo på universitetscampus, rapporterade studenter att de kunde bryta och betala sina räkningar med „gratis“ el från skolor.

En handledare för sovsalen sa vid den tiden att han helt enkelt skulle bryta krypto istället för att värma på vintern

Men innan du nu vill spara uppvärmningskostnader med ett kryptogruvsystem bör du överväga att det är svårt att dra nytta av fördelarna med att bryta många kryptovalutor hemma, eftersom elkostnaderna, som ofta är mycket höga för att generera block, är särskilt sanna det för extremt konkurrenskraftiga valutor som BTC.

Bitcoin Will Reach $115K, „Speculative“ Altcoins Will Fall – Pantera Capital

Nowe dane uzyskane od Pantera Capital wskazują, że obecna akcja cenowa Bitcoina wydaje się podążać za trajektorią modelu stock-to-follow.

Firma inwestycyjna i fundusz hedgingowy stwierdziły, że Bitcoin wzrośnie do 115.212 dolarów do 1 sierpnia 2021 roku. Analitycy ci twierdzą, że rosnąca dominacja BTC i ETH nad powierzchnią kryptońską wskazuje, że obecny rynek hossy jest głównie inny w porównaniu z ostatnim.

Wybuchowy rajd Bitcoin Up mógł spowodować że jego cena nieco wyprzedziła projekcję modelu, a zeszłotygodniowa korekta o 28% wywołała kilka dreszczy na rynku. Jednak ostre korekty i krótkie konsolidacje są charakterystyczne dla normalnych rynków hossy.
Zmniejszenie o połowę projekcji stock-to-flow. Źródło: Pantera Capital

Model ten skupia się głównie na wpływie cenowym wydarzeń, które zmniejszają o połowę ilość Bitcoinów wybijanych z każdego bloku co cztery lata. W oparciu o ten model, efekt zmniejszenia podaży BTC staje się obecny około sześć miesięcy po każdej połowie.

Kiedy cena Bitcoinu spadła o połowę 11 maja 2020 roku, cena wynosiła prawie 8000 dolarów, a około pół roku później Bitcoin handlował powyżej 15000 dolarów i był na skraju wejścia w paraboliczny rajd do nowego, wszechobecnego haju.
Cena Bitcoinu po zmniejszeniu o połowę. Źródło: Halving Tracker

Wykres przedstawia postęp Bitcoin’a w dniach każdej połowy. Podobny wzór powstał w ciągu ostatnich dwóch połówek, tylko z różnym okresem. Obecna wydajność Bitcoinów wydaje się być w okresie pomiędzy cyklami rynku 2012 2016. Ma to potencjał, aby doprowadzić do ceny BTC pomiędzy 300.000 dolarów a 400.000 dolarów prawie 450 dni po ostatniej połowie, lub około 4 sierpnia.

Oznaki dojrzałego rynku

Kolejną istotną różnicą pomiędzy obecnym rajdem a rajdem w 2017 r. jest ogólna struktura rynku i specyficzna lokalizacja wartości rynkowej. Większa część wartości obecnego rynku jest skonsolidowana w Ether i Bitcoin. Inwestorzy instytucjonalni wybrali najbardziej ustabilizowane sieci, aby zyskać pewną ekspozycję na branżę kryptograficzną.

Jeden z dyrektorów ds. polityki publicznej ds. wiz w Wielkich Chinach, Andy Yee, podkreślił tę zmianę w odpowiedzi na raport Pantery na Twitterze:

„Ten rajd jest inny. Masowa zmiana z wysoko spekulacyjnych, niefunkcjonujących żetonów w 2017 roku na #Bitcoin i #Ethereum dzisiaj, według PanteraCapital.“

Koncentracja rynku kryptokurrency. Źródło: Pantera Capital

Zgodnie z opublikowanym powyżej wykresem, Ether i Bitcoin dowodzą zdumiewającym 86% całego rynku. Pozostałe 5.000 łańcuchów zostało do wyczerpania dla pozostałych 14%. Kiedy Bitcoin pojawił się pod koniec 2017 roku, dwie najlepsze monety miały w sumie 52% całej wartości rynkowej. Oznacza to, że Bitcoin i Ether skonsolidowały swój segment rynku w ciągu ostatnich trzech lat.

Zmiana w funduszach jest prawdopodobnie spowodowana przez pieniądze instytucjonalne koncentrujące się na Bitcoin jako ich głównym punkcie wejścia na scenę kryptońską. Wybierają inwestycje w Bitcoin ze względu na jego rozległą infrastrukturę górniczą i bezpieczeństwo sieci. Ponadto, inwestycje w sieci Ethernet nabrały rozpędu w wyniku rozkwitającego ekosystemu zdecentralizowanych finansów (DeFi), który jest zasilany głównie przez sieć Ethereum.

Wraz z dalszym rozwojem przestrzeni DeFi, oczekuje się, że będzie ona przyciągać więcej uwagi instytucjonalnej, co również podniesie cenę eteru, ponieważ jest on potrzebny do interakcji z każdą inteligentną umową i platformą DeFi w sieci Ethereum. Dane uzyskane z Defipulsu wskazują, że całkowita wartość zablokowana w sektorze DeFi wynosi obecnie około 23,116 mld dolarów.

Całkowita wartość zablokowana w sektorze DeFi.

Wraz ze wzrostem TVL wzrasta również wartość głównych monet ekosystemu, w tym Synthetix (SNX) i AAVE. Co ważne, wolumen obrotu na największych zdecentralizowanych giełdach, takich jak SushiSwap i Uniswap, nadal rośnie, a dane pozyskane z Dune Analytics wskazują, że skumulowany tygodniowy wolumen DEX przekroczył ostatnio 13 mld USD.

Institutional Inflow to Bitcoin May Cause A New Altseason

Podczas gdy Ether i Bitcoin obecnie zarządzają 86% pułapu rynku kryptograficznego, poprzednie cykle rynkowe wskazują na możliwość wypływu funduszy z górnych krypt i do obiecujących nowych projektów. Ta dynamika sprawiła, że analitycy tacy jak Raoul Pal mówią, że po masowym rajdzie BTC i ETH, „następnym przystankiem będą altcoiny o wyższym ryzyku“.

Media podkreśliły również, że Goldman Sachs może się przygotować do zaoferowania usług przechowywania kryptosów, co wyznaczyłoby etap kolejnego cyklu Bitcoin hype. Ciągły napływ pieniędzy z klasy instytucjonalnej może stać się katalizatorem, który podwyższy cenę BTC i utrzyma ją w zgodzie z prognozami podanymi przez model stock-to-flow.

This historic Italian bank invests in cryptosurveillance – Its customers not at the end of their surprises

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Criptovalute, per favore – More and more banks are looking to gain exposure to the growing cryptocurrency sector. This is now the case of Banca Generali, in Italy, which announces that it has made a large investment in the Conio wallet crypto company, and promises much more for 2021.

14 million dollars invested in a crypto-startup
Banca Generali is one of the largest Italian banks. It is a private institution, specialised in managing the assets of very wealthy clients.

Via a press release published on 15 December, the institution announced that it had invested no less than 14 million dollars in the crypto-company Conio, which notably offers a Bitcoin wallet (BTC). The Banca Generali has thus become the main investor in a capital increase operation of the young crypto company.

This commercial partnership between Conio and Banca Generali will enable the bank to benefit from the startup’s custody and trading services for crypto-assets. Conio already manages more than 150,000 portfolios of cryptomoney for its mainly Italian clients.

Conio explains that it has developed an exclusive technology with patents designed to ensure the secure storage of cryptos, while reducing counterparty risk. These include a patented guard system, based on multi-signatures, with 3 security keys.

An offer of cryptos to high net worth clients
Another important revelation: thanks to this agreement with Conio, the Italian bank announces that it will provide its customers with access to Bitcoin and other crypto-actives as early as 2021.

„(…) We expect that the future structure of the financial markets will be influenced by blockchain technology, which continues to enable innovation via cryptomoney and in many other areas of the financial ecosystem. (…) the agreement with Conio means an expansion of the services offered to our clients and a collaboration with an innovation-oriented partner (…)“.

Gian Maria Mossa, CEO and DG of Banca Generali
Christian Miccoli, co-CEO of Conio, also points out that :

„This agreement with Banca Generali is a major step towards a new era for the entire financial system (…). After 10 years of development and stabilisation of their sector, cryptomoney is now entering a new tangible phase, by entering the range of services offered by financial institutions. »

Without heavy regulatory barriers, the cryptosphere in Italy can progress and innovate to the point where it now reaches the banks. For its part, thanks to this partnership with Conio, the Banca Generali ensures that it is among the first transalpine banks to be able to directly offer cryptomoney managed via its bank account.

Previsão de preço de bitcoin: Tentativas do BTC/USD de saltar o obstáculo a $18.200 para retomar o momento ascendente

Previsão de preços Bitcoin (BTC) – 19 de novembro de 2020

Após a recente alta de $18.500, o BTC/USD agora flutua entre $17.300 e $18.200. Nos últimos dois dias, a BTC vem se consolidando acima de $17.300, mas voltou a testar a resistência em $18.200 duas vezes. Ao testar novamente a resistência de $18.200, é uma indicação de um novo impulso positivo.

  • Níveis de resistência: $13.000, $14.000, $15.000
  • Níveis de apoio: $7.000, $6.000, $5.000
  • BTC/USD – Gráfico Diário

O recente aumento de preços para $18.500 foi enfrentado com uma forte correção para baixo. No processo de correção, o crypto formou uma faixa de preço entre $17.300 e $18.200. Para que o impulso ascendente seja retomado, o preço deve ser mantido acima de $17.500. Isto proporcionará um reteste contínuo da resistência de $18.200. Em outras palavras, se o preço se consolidar acima de $17.500, aumentará a possibilidade de uma ruptura perto da zona de resistência.

Por outro lado, se o preço quebrar a resistência de $18.200, a Bitcoin retomará uma nova tendência de alta. A moeda subirá acima de $19.000. Da mesma forma, se os ursos quebrarem abaixo do suporte de $17.300, a Bitcoin cairá para $16.400 de baixa. Enquanto isso, a BTC continuou a se manter dentro da faixa apertada. A BTC está acima da faixa de 80% do estocástico diário. Ele indica a condição de sobre-compra da moeda.

As moedas digitais podem fazer parte da „Nova Ordem Monetária“ de Andy Haldane
Andy Haldane é o responsável pela política do Banco da Inglaterra (BOE). Ele é o economista-chefe do banco e membro efetivo do Comitê de Política Monetária. Na quarta-feira, 18 de novembro, ele deu uma palestra pública na Conferência do 10º Aniversário do CityUK. Andy Haldane acredita que uma moeda digital amplamente utilizada poderia ter um impacto positivo na estabilidade financeira. O Banco da Inglaterra, ou BOE, está expandindo sua avaliação das moedas digitais, avaliando como esses ativos poderiam formar a base de uma „nova ordem monetária“.

BTC/USD – Gráfico de 4 Horas

Enquanto isso, a Bitcoin tem que pular o obstáculo a $18.200 de resistência para continuar o impulso ascendente. Em 18 de novembro, a BTC resistiu a $18.200. No entanto, o corpo da vela retraída testou o nível de retração de 78,6% Fibonacci. Isto indica que a moeda subirá e reverterá no nível 1.272 de extensão Fibonacci. Isso indica que o mercado irá reverter no nível de $19.158,20.

Analyst explains: That’s why buying Bitcoin at $ 16,000 is risky

According to Marc Principato of Green Bridge Investing, the Bitcoin bulls should prepare for a bow once the cryptocurrency closes above $ 16,000.

The executive director projected the level as an opportunity for traders to make some profits. He adds that they would most likely bring that money back into the Crypto Profit scam at a lower level – and he warns optimists not to go long near $ 16,000 as a result.

„Our plan requires 3 things to unfold before we can take any chances,“ Principato said in a note posted on Monday. “First, we need to reach a predetermined level (14,250 to 13,600). Second, we need price actions to have a clear structure (chart pattern, candle pattern, etc.). And third, we need confirmation. “

And:

„As soon as we can measure the risk and determine a favorable probability, we will share our idea and start a new swing trade“

On the subject of fundamentals

The statement followed the parabolic Bitcoin move from $ 10,500 in September 2020 to [nearly] $ 16,500 in November 2020. Many analysts agree that the prospect of ultra-low interest rates and infinite bond purchases has brought lower returns to the Treasury. That, in turn, has led investors to put money in assets like Bitcoin.

Some also believe that a rising budget deficit, led by the U.S. government’s $ 2.3 trillion coronavirus incentive aid, has poured some of the liquidity into the Bitcoin ecosystem. Other bullish catalysts included institutional investments and PayPal’s decision to introduce Bitcoin buying and selling services on its payment platform.

However, Andrew Gonci, CEO of Green Bridge Investing, comments that Bitcoin traders had already taken over all the upside catalysts by sending the price towards $ 16,500. Now the cryptocurrency is trading at its actual spot rates – an overbought asset that requires some degree of downward correction.

„Most think you’re either all in or all out, but if you bought 100 million bitcoin at 10,000 and it’s now 160 million at 16,000, you will likely take at least 16-32 million off the table,“ added Gonci. “This is how hedge fund managers think; they don’t go on Hopium! “

Capital comes at record speed

On-chain analyst Willy Woo, meanwhile, believes that capital is entering the Bitcoin market at record speed instead of leaving it. He quotes the realized price – a metric that measures the estimated average cost base that Bitcoin investors have paid.

Woo explains:

“Organic price actions take place when the BTC price is closely related to the investor capital that is going in and out. If it is an inorganic BTC price, it will be dominated by short term derivatives traders „

Bitcoin va camino de los 12.000 dólares mientras el dólar americano baja

Mientras que los mercados generales están en modo de riesgo, Bitcoin por encima de los 10.000 dólares ha sido el que más ha durado con un comienzo positivo de la semana.

Después de terminar el mercado con una nota alta la semana pasada, esta nueva semana está viendo otro buen comienzo.

Lo que comenzó como un lunes no tan agradable con Bitcoin perdiendo alrededor de 200 dólares, se convirtió en un lunes verde con el activo digital a 11.550 dólares.

„Algo de resistencia técnica en este momento y una brecha CME por debajo de 11.1k, un riesgo bastante bajo para comprar la caída si llega“, dice el analista de cadenas Willy Woo.

El precio ahora tiene una resistencia de entre 13.000 y 14.000 dólares, y el operador Josh Rager verá 12.000 dólares muy pronto.

„El precio está de nuevo en el rango anterior a la ruptura, y personalmente, no veo por qué no podemos ver 12.000 dólares esta semana“, dijo Rager.

La inversión de 50 millones de dólares de Bitcoin causó que el aumento de precio impidiera a los inversores institucionales colocar posiciones largas hasta ahora.

Mientras que las cuentas de gestores de activos de posiciones largas en CME subieron de 523 a 703, los fondos apalancados y otras cuentas de posiciones reportables no mostraron un ajuste de dirección que indicara un enfoque conservador, según el último informe de CME, a partir del 6 de octubre.

El interés abierto también repuntó de 7.324 a 7.511, después de un período de contracción de dos semanas.

El más largo plazo

Lo bueno para Bitcoin es que a pesar de una serie de movimientos regulatorios como la FCA del Reino Unido prohibiendo la venta de derivados criptográficos y el Departamento de Justicia emitiendo un marco de aplicación de criptografía, Bitcoin se mantuvo en 10.000 dólares.

De hecho, han pasado un total de 90 días, hasta ahora en el 2020 ese BitQT ha estado por encima de los 10.000 dólares, comparado con 86 en 2019, 53 en 2018 y 34 en 2017.

Según Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC, la claridad regulatoria es buena para el criptograma ya que limpiaría a los „malos actores“. „A pesar de seleccionar bolsas de riesgo más pequeñas“, lo ven como algo positivo para el mercado en general, y añaden: „creemos que la tendencia alcista del mercado predominante está intacta“.

Pero sí ven al DeFi „bajo presión“ por la falta de protocolos KYC y AML junto con fichas de intercambio de cuasicapital offshore y más riesgos con „fichas criptográficas listadas exclusivamente en intercambios offshore donde las prohibiciones más estrictas de los inversores estadounidenses podrían limitar la liquidez y la demanda“.

El modo de riesgo sigue en marcha

A diferencia del BTC, el oro no ve tal pico, operando a 1.924 dólares, lo mismo que el S&P 500 a poco más de 3.500. El dólar, sin embargo, ha bajado a 93, lo que supone una fuerte corrección negativa para el bitcoin.

El mercado general sigue en modo de riesgo antes de las elecciones presidenciales de EE.UU. el 3 de noviembre.

Sin embargo, los inversionistas están creciendo más esperanzados en un estímulo económico adicional, ya que el Presidente Donald Trump dijo que quiere ver un paquete de estímulo más grande que el que ofrecían los demócratas o los republicanos.

Mientras que Trump dio marcha atrás a la amenaza de la semana pasada de detener las negociaciones, el líder de la mayoría del Senado, Mitch McConnell, expresó sus dudas de que el Congreso aprobara un paquete antes de las elecciones.

Según el jefe de estrategia de acciones de Goldman, David Kostin „nueva información sobre la elección, las vacunas y las próximas ganancias del tercer trimestre representan corrientes cruzadas sustanciales para las acciones durante los próximos dos meses“.